2003 NFL SIMULATION: CLINTON ADMINISTRATION

Cllinton_Portis_Belt

Throughout Mike Shanahan’s reign as Denver Broncos head coach the team featured an elite run game. It started with Terrell Davis in the late 1990s, and the zone blocking scheme became a staple no matter who carried the rock. Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell all excelled as Denver running backs throughout the first half of the 2000s.

Clinton Portis was drafted in the second round in 2002 and spent two years as Denver’s featured back, exceeding more than 1,500 rushing yards both years before his assets were flipped to Washington for cornerback Champ Bailey in a rare player-for-player swap of elite players.

In simulation, Portis regular season highlight involved a historic 295-yard rushing day (320 yards overall) and five touchdowns in a 52-26 win over Kansas City.

Portis, along with quarterback Jake Plummer proved large in the simulation. The Broncos went 15-1 in the regular season before navigating a star-studded playoff field.

Screen Shot 2016-05-20 at 6.22.31 AM

Simulations have not been kind to the Green Bay Packers over 38 years, they did not appear in either of the first two Super Bowls, the lone appearance in the big game being a Super Bowl IX fart in the wind.

In real life, the Packers played their best ball of the season towards the end of the 2003 season, but it appeared they would miss the postseason until a Minnesota Vikings meltdown in the final minutes at Arizona provided Green Bay’s lifeline to the playoffs.

The Packers defeated the Seattle Seahawks in dramatic fashion and all but sealed a divisional round win in Philadelphia until coach Mike Sherman elected not to go for it on fourth and about three inches followed by Freddie Mitchell’s infamous fourth and 26 catch.

If not for that, many believed the Packers would had advanced to Super Bowl XXXVIII. By this time Brett Favre had completed his 12th year as starting quarterback and both Coach Mike Holmgren and Reggie White had left Green Bay without a Super Bowl appearance in this alternative reality.

Bill Belichick and Mike Shanahan met in simulation for the first time in the playoffs in the divisional round. The Broncos scored the home win in dramatic fashion as Jake Plummer found Rod Smith for a 25-yard touchdown with 1:23 remaining.

At 14-2, the Baltimore Ravens were the Broncos equal for most of the season as Jamal Lewis ran for 2,066 yards in the actual season. In the sim Baltimore defeated the Tennessee Titans in the division round to set up a dream AFC Championship matchup between the Ravens and Broncos. The game was won by Denver 26-10, sending Shanahan and the Broncos to their fourth Super Bowl in eight years.

In the NFC the Packers did not sweat out a playoff berth with a NFC North title and 13-3 record. Green Bay also handed the Broncos their lone loss in the regular season finale. The Packers memorable Wild Card game against the Seahawks at Lambeau Field was replicated in the divisional round.

Matt Hasselbeck did not win the opening coin toss, and Seattle did not score as the Packers recorded a 30-0 shutout. A week later Green Bay traveled to Carolina and easily defeated the top-seeded Panthers 23-3 behind Ahman Green’s 155 yards rushing.

The Packers and Broncos met in Houston six years after their actual Super Bowl XXXII matchup. This showdown proved one-sided as Portis rushed for 157 yards with three scores and Rod Smith added two TD receptions as Plummer out-gunslinged Favre in a 45-20 rout, giving Denver their second world championship.

Other brief notes on the 2003 season.

  • The sim likes the Buffalo Bills, who won the AFC East at 12-4 and swept the New England Patriots.
  • In real-life the Indianapolis Colts had established itself as contenders with a 12-4 record, but finished 6-10 in the simulation.
  • Jamal Lewis season highlights included 209 yards and two TD’s v. Arizona and 179 yards and three TD v. Jacksonville. Ahman Green put up video game numbers with240 yards and five touchdowns against St. Louis while Portis rushed for 216 yards in a 48-10 win over Minnesota and also eclipsed 200 against Indianapolis. Cincinnati’s Rudi Johnson had 240 yards in a game while Atlanta’s Warrick Dunn rushed for a 206-yard day.
Advertisements

1999 NFL SIMULATION: CONSIDER THE ODDS

Screen Shot 2016-05-09 at 9.19.29 AM

After San Diego’s Rodney Harrison came down on the knee of projected starting quarterback Trent Green in a 1999 preseason game, the Rams were installed at 300-1 odds to win Super Bowl XXXIV.

Kurt Warner ended up making a lot of coin for those who took up that bet. But what would have been the chances of Warner leading St. Louis to the NFL’s first 19-0 campaign?

That would had been beyond Leicester City odds.

But the Greatest Show on Turf ran roughshod through the NFL and gave opponents its own Y2K crisis, as in how to possibly beat this team. In this sim at least, no one had the answer.

Screen Shot 2016-05-17 at 5.51.57 PM

  • There would be no Music City Miracle in the 1999 postseason. The Buffalo Bills earned the AFC’s top seed with a 12-4 record while the Tennessee Titans missed the playoffs at 9-7.
  • The Rams had little margin for error in securing the NFC’s top seed, as the Dallas Cowboys (8-8 in real life) somehow compiled a 15-1 record themselves.
  • The Rams completed the seventh undefeated regular season in sim history, only one the previous six (’67 Raiders) went on to win the Super Bowl.
  • Green Bay Packers coach Ray Rhodes received a pink slip hours after the completion of his team’s 6-10 campaign.

The AFC Playoffs became an upside down affair. In the wild card round the Jacksonville Jaguars won in New England while the Broncos won at Kansas City behind four Olandis Gary touchdowns. The following week Jacksonville won in Baltimore while the Broncos did the same in Buffalo.

Chalk mostly prevailed in the NFC. The Central Division champion Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers both took care of business in the Wild Card round, with the Buccaneers making QB Kerry Collins look silly in the process of a 23-0 shutout. The Panthers season would end with a 29-17 loss in St. Louis while the Buccaneers nipped the Cowboys 10-9 in Dallas.

For the second time in three years, the number five and six seeds met for the AFC Championship in Jacksonville, who also hosted the actual 1999 AFC title game. For the second time in three weeks Olandis Gary took center stage, the fill-in for the injured Terrell Davis rushed for 164 yards and three scores in a wild 40-34 overtime victory to send Denver to their third Super Bowl in four years.

In the NFC title game, there would be no Bert Emanuel moment. The Rams dominated the Buccaneers from beginning to end in a 33-3 rout to send the Rams to their eighth Super Bowl, and first in 20 years.

Super Bowl XXXIV would not come down to one yard either. The Rams stifled the Denver running game and held a 9-0 lead after three quarters then pulled away for a 26-3 win, ending the Oakland Raiders 32-year reign as the lone undefeated Super Bowl champion. With its fifth title, the Rams join the Minnesota Vikings as having the most Super Bowl wins and become the seventh of 34 actual Super Bowl champs to replicate their championship in the sim.

And Kurt Warner had defeated the odds of going from a camp arm and Hy-Vee stocker to the architect of 19-0. Yes, you can defy the odds.